Output Gap Measures | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Are we at full employment? Here are some estimates: Figure 1: Output gap, from CBO (blue), from OECD (tan), from IMF (green), from Fleischman/Roberts-FRB
Inflation: January 2024 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] CPI comes in above consensus, on both headline and core. Instantaneous inflation (per Eeckhout (2023)) has a slight uptick. Figure 1: Year on Year
Inflation Expectations Down | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Forecast errors from end of last year are essentially zero. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue
Asian-Americans Once Again Thank Trump
[ad_1] From Knorre et al. (2024): Source: Knorre et al. (2024). From the paper: First, overall public violent victimization of Asian-Americans fell shortly after the
Where Does UkraineRussia Fit As an Independent State, Historically?
[ad_1] A great map, courtesy of the former President of Mongolia: Source: BI. Some fact-checking, here. [ad_2] Source link
Survey of Professional Forecasters – February
[ad_1] From Friday’s SPF release for Q1, for GDP: Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), CBO (blue), WSJ-January (brown), SPF-February (red), IMF-January (light green
Is Germany in a Recession? And if so, would we have predicted it?
[ad_1] In Chinn and Ferrara (2024), we find substantial explanatory power for the 10yr-3mo, the 3 month rate, and the debt service ratio for German
Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Countries [updated]
[ad_1] Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of post 12.6.2021) For
Why I Don’t Think It Was Only Demand Shocks that Drove 2022-23 Inflation
[ad_1] From a lecture prepared for “Macroeconomic Policy” (Spring 2024): Figure 1: Output gap (black, left scale), CBO projected output gap (pink, left scale), and
One of the Three is Not Like the Others: The Partisan Divide and Economic Sentiment
[ad_1] Here’s the U.Michigan sentiment indices for three partisan groupings, vs. the SF Fed News Sentiment index. Figure 1: CShapiro, Sudhof and Wilson (2020) Daily