Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (assuming nothing else happens in January)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing 2024
Pecuniary Benefits of Showing the Flag
From Tillman and Yun, “Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia” (2025). Asia, in particular East Asia and the South
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For nonfarm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change since 2023M12 in nonfarm payroll
Employment in December | Econbrowser
Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024), which
Rhodium Group: Another Estimate of Chinese GDP Growth
From Rhodium Group (h/t Stephen Nagy): Some alternative estimates from BOFIT (November): The lower bound on the BOFIT alternatives is about equal to Gao Shanwen’s
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
Five year breakeven up, dollar up. Figure 1: Five year Treasury breakeven (black, left scale), 5 year expected inflation (light blue, left scale), both %;
Teaching Macro Policy (Upper Division Undergrad), 2025
Iterating toward new readings for Econ 442 (Macroeconomic Policy). Last year I added to the undergrad course climate change and r*. Thanks for suggestions I
Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Nov 2024)
This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black), Philadelphia
Term Spreads in Advanced Economies One Year Ago, and Conditions Today
A year ago, Laurent Ferrara and I documented the explanatory power of the term spread for recessions across countries. Here’re the 10yr-3mo spreads in November
US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Buckle Up!
EPU through yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale) and 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale), and