Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
As of today: For comparison, here is the y/y (official) inflation rate (through June). With the policy rate at 18%, and y/y inflation at
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP: Figure
2024Q2 GDP Advance Release: Too Good to Be True?
GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes: 2.8% Fake GDP is number are reported
Still strong after all these years
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s close
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate. Source: Predict, accessed 7/24/2024, 4:30pm ET. Just to
MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s
CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge
From CBO report released yesterday. The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge: Figure 1: Baseline Federal budget balance to GDP
Instantaneous Core Inflation | Econbrowser
Four out of five measures down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), PPI core (red), and
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes. Source:
News and Sentiment | Econbrowser
A snapshot as of July: Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index (green),