A Fiscal “Do You Feel Lucky?” Part II
[ad_1] Previous counts put Trump fiscal promises at (at least) $4 trillion over ten years, compared to Harris $1.7 trillion (or Economist $3 trillion vs
Chinn and Irwin: “International Economics” (f’coming Cambridge Univ Press)
[ad_1] Are you teaching international economics next spring? Or just want to learn more about the field? Consider adopting/purchasing this new textbook, by myself and
Disciplining the Debate: Recession Indicator AUROCs
[ad_1] One of the interesting things about the current debate over whether we’re about to go into a recession or not is the multitude of
In-Sample and Out-of-Sample Recession Probabilities
[ad_1] No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit
Guest Contribution: “As Predicted by Motio Estimates, Real Median Household Income Rose in 2023 for the First Time Since 2019”
[ad_1] Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research. In May 2024, we
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
[ad_1] RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3. Source: RCP, accessed 9/22/2024, ~ 3pm CT. PredictIt, the only platform able to operate
Bull Steepening since FOMC Meeting
[ad_1] Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024: Figure 1: Change since June 1, 2024 in 10yr-2yr term spread (bold black), contribution to change from 10 year
“Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”
[ad_1] That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions. Furthermore, the Biden administration’s cherry-picking of data has come back
Nowcasts Rising | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (inverted light green triangle),
State Employment Report for August
[ad_1] Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report). Here’s the diffusion index (mean at 25) for 3 month unemployment rate