Guest Contribution: “Occupations and Responses to Social Security Retirement Policy”
Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University
Guest Contribution: “A Monthly Series of U.S. Household Income Data”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research. This
Business Cycle Indicators, end-February 2024
Personal spending comes in at consensus, personal income above. Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee plus monthly
GDP, Est’d GDO, GDP+ | Econbrowser
With the second release for GDP, we have the following picture of aggregate output: Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow nowcast of 2/27 for GDP (light
The UK in Recession? Expected or Unexpected?
With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is in
CFNAI for January, WEI for mid-February
Economic growth slightly below trend. CFNAI-MA3 is -0.02, so slightly below trend in January — but still above the -0.07 threshold for contraction. WEI
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions. Let’s compare peaks
Other Metrics for Evaluating Recession Onset and the “Technical Recession” of 2022H1
Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output. Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (tan),
On GDP, from the Country That Brought You the Term “Potemkin Village”
From BOFIT, on 16 February 2024: PRELIMINARY FIGURES SUGGEST SURPRISINGLY ROBUST RUSSIAN GDP GROWTH IN 2023 last week released its preliminary 2023 data, which