The UK in Recession? Expected or Unexpected?
[ad_1] With two quarters of GDP decline in the UK according to the current vintage of data, it’s reasonable to ask if the UK is
CFNAI for January, WEI for mid-February
[ad_1] Economic growth slightly below trend. CFNAI-MA3 is -0.02, so slightly below trend in January — but still above the -0.07 threshold for contraction.
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
[ad_1] Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions. Let’s compare
Other Metrics for Evaluating Recession Onset and the “Technical Recession” of 2022H1
[ad_1] Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output. Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO
On GDP, from the Country That Brought You the Term “Potemkin Village”
[ad_1] From BOFIT, on 16 February 2024: PRELIMINARY FIGURES SUGGEST SURPRISINGLY ROBUST RUSSIAN GDP GROWTH IN 2023 last week released its preliminary 2023 data,
Recessions Defined and (Maybe) Predicted
[ad_1] Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate (software called Canvas, used on many campuses), I thought I would share some
Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce: “Optimism is falling” in Wisconsin
[ad_1] From the Badger Institute: Will things improve? No: 47% expect the national economy to “remain flat” over the next six months, and 20% —
The Dollar’s Role as an International Currency
[ad_1] Some recent items: papers by Chinn, Frankel and Ito and Kamin and Sobel; talk by Mark Copelovitch on Tuesday. By Chinn, Frankel, and Ito
Exchange Rate Pass Through into Import Prices, CPI
[ad_1] Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-February | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Industrial production comes in under consensus. Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating