Deceleration Confirmed | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Despite the upward revision to Q2 GDP, and accelerated nowcast growth in 3rd quarter GDP, aggregate demand is decelerating. First, GDP, the measurement of
Business Cycle Indicators as of End-of-August
[ad_1] Real personal income ex-transfers, manufacturing and trade industry sales, civilian employment, civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept, industrial and manufacturing production, real retail sales,
Term Premium and Trsy-TIPS Breakeven
[ad_1] The 10yr term premium has risen, as has the 5yr TIPS-Trsy breakeven, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s campaign to subjugate
G. Dirk Mateer Asks: “Do We Still Really Need the Bureau of Labor Statistics?”
[ad_1] I’d say “yes”. From RealClearPolitics: So, if the BLS job numbers are so unpredictable, and we employ so many people to compile them, why
Re-Arranging the Syllabus (Again): Barro-Gordon Moved Up
[ad_1] For the first time in four years, I get to teach a course on the Financial System, which is like a
Economic Policy Uncertainty Spikes
[ad_1] In the wake of Trump’s letter re: Lisa Cook: [ad_2] Source link
Watch the Term Premium (10yr)
[ad_1] That’s Jared Bernstein’s advice, in the wake of Trump’s escalation of the war on Fed independence. Here’s the picture up to
Confidence Drops (to above Consensus)
[ad_1] Conference Board Consumer Confidence at 97.4 (vs. 96.4 consensus): Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board
Zandi’s Recession Map | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From Newsweek today: Source: Zandi via Newsweek. Here’s a map indicating q/q AR NFP growth through July 2025, from yesterday’s post.
Constitutional and Economic Crises: Trump’s Assaults the Fed’s Independence
[ad_1] This is the best guarantee that cost pressures from tariffs and mass removals will manifest in wage-price spirals, combined with growth