Immigration 2021-23: Supply and Demand Shock
[ad_1] Or, why has the US done so well. Part of it’s immigration. From Goldman Sachs “Upgrading Our GDP and Payrolls Forecasts to Reflect Elevated
How Close to Target? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today. Here’s a picture of headline CPI and the “food at home” category. Figure 1: Headline
Republicans/Lean-Republicans and the Biden Effect on Economic Sentiment
[ad_1] Here’s a plot to economic sentiment as recorded by the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, by political affiliation: Figure 1: University of Michigan
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-March 2024
[ad_1] Industrial production near consensus, while manufacturing surprises on upside (+0.8% vs. +0.3% m/m). Here’s a picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business
Russian Growth Slows | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From BOFIT today (translated by Google): GROWTH IN TOTAL PRODUCTION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT MONTHSAccording to the monthly estimate published by the Russian Ministry
“Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article by S. Ganguly for Reuters. Nearly two-thirds of strategists in a March 6-12 Reuters poll of bond market
Dot Plot vs. Market Expectations
[ad_1] For Econ 442 “Macroeconomic Policy”. A question was raised today regarding whether one could distinguish between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s, regarding the
Alternative Measures of NFP | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Philadelphia Fed’s early benchmark indicates NFP employment is on lower trajectory than indicated by the CES measure, by about 600 thousands. How does this
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVII
[ad_1] Follow up to Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI. With data up to 2023Q4, the answer remains “no”. Figure 1: M2 velocity calculated using GDP