Manufacturing’s Progress | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Output, employment and value added: Figure 1: Manufacturing production (black), manufacturing employment (tan), real value added (teal bars), all in logs, 2021M01=0. Source: FRB,
Thinking about Trade War II
[ad_1] A flurry of investment bank newsletters (Wells Fargo, GS) impels me to look at what happened to the aggregate trade balance in the wake
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment along with Coincident Index, VMT, Heavy Trucks, and Sahm Rule
[ad_1] Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee used in their business cycle chronology: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll
March Employment Indicators for Nonfarm Payroll
[ad_1] The employment surprise in context. Figure 1: NFP (bold blue), Bloomberg consensus of 4/4 (light blue x), household series adjusted to NFP concept (green),
Some Wisconsin Macro Indicators through February (and Thoughts on the Wisconsin GOP Imagined Recession that Wasn’t)
[ad_1] Coincident index for February out today. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark measure of NFP (pink), Civilian Employment (tan),
Presidential Election: Polls vs. Prediction Markets
[ad_1] From Real Clear Politics and PredictIt, today: Source: RealClearPolitics, accessed 4/3/2024. The spread between Trump and Biden has narrowed recently. Polls also tabulated at
Guest Contribution: “The Size of Major Currency Zones and Their Determinants”
[ad_1] Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written Hiro Ito (Portland State University). There is no doubt that the U.S. dollar is the
A Really Very Long Series on the Real Rate
[ad_1] With implications for growth and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024): Source: Rogoff, Rossi and Schmelzing (AER, 2024). Contra assertions of
2023Q4 GDP Advances in All 50 States; Real Personal Income Declines in 5
[ad_1] From BEA: Source: BEA. Nominal personal income rose in all states. Source: BEA. However, what we care about is real personal income. I deflate
Explaining the 2022-23 Disinflation Out-of-Sample
[ad_1] In tomorrow’s lecture on the Phillips Curve and the recent inflation surge for Econ 442, I ask whether a modifed Blanchard-Cerutti-Summers (2015) Phillips Curve