Why Did Mr. Trump Say before the Employment Release “the real numbers”…”will be in a year from now on”?
[ad_1] [source] Answer: Because, by virtue of the Executive Office of the President getting the release numbers the night before, he knew the numbers were
Employment in the Context of Business Cycle Indicators
[ad_1] With NFP at +22K < +75K Bloomberg consensus (hinted at by Trump signaling “pay no heed to the numbers behind the curtain”), we have
Yield Curves over the Last Year
[ad_1] The yield curve at the short end is almost as inverted as it was in November 2024. In fact, it’s more
“How Tariffs are Affecting Wisconsin Economy”
[ad_1] WisPolitics Luncheon on 9/16, 11:30-1pm. Join WisPolitics and the Wisconsin Technology Council on Tuesday Sept. 16 for lunch and a panel
The Employment Picture — Pre-August Release
[ad_1] JOLTS data indicates the vacancies to unemployed ratio has descended to unity. Figure 1: Top panel: Civilian employment (experimental series), 000’s, s.a. (blue line,
The Financial System: Some Graphs
[ad_1] Starting teaching today a course on the financial system. Here are some graphs of the current situation, through August.
Nowcasted “Core GDP” Decelerates | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Q2 final sales to private domestic purchasers — arguably a better indicator over time about momentum in the economy in the
It Can’t Happen Here: Inflation Edition
[ad_1] I was thinking about how a completely subservient central bank can destroy price stability, referring to examples from history. From Phillip
All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July
[ad_1] And CPI nowcasted to rise in August, too: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (black, left scale), chained core CPI
Still on the Trade Policy Uncertainty Roller Coaster
[ad_1] The appeals court decision is a win, but we’re still a far way from resolving policy uncertainty: Figure 1: EPU-trade category