Futures vs. SEP on the Fed Funds Rate Trajectory
[ad_1] Here’s a picture of the Fed funds pre- and post-CPI release/FOMC SEP: Source: CME accessed 6/12/2024, 1:30pm. Before the news, the implied drop
FT-Booth School and FOMC GDP Forecasts
[ad_1] The survey indicates 2.0% median growth q4/q4, not far from June SEP at 2.1% (unchanged from March). Figure 1: GDP (bold black), May Survey
Year-on-Year and Instantaneous Inflation in May; Food Prices Declining
[ad_1] Headline and core surprise on the downside: m/m 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.0% vs 0.1% consensus, respectively. More interestingly, Cleveland Fed core CPI
GDP, GDO, GDP+ | Econbrowser
[ad_1] All have a positive gradient in Q1. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (tan), and GDP+ (sky blue), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP, GDO
On the Recession Indicator Watch: Retail Sales
[ad_1] Out of curiosity, I peruse the web to see who is still saying a recession is coming (with an open mind). This tweet suggests
“Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?”
[ad_1] Yes! From Rashed Ahmed and Menzie Chinn, just published in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. This paper was previously discussed in this
“Why the Recession Still Isn’t Here”
[ad_1] That’s the title of a Timoros/WSJ article three days ago: Typically in the recovery from a downturn, households are more cautious about spending and
Six Measures of Employment over the Past Year
[ad_1] CES measures indicate faster growth than others. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), early benchmark (tan), CPS measure adjusted to NFP concept (green), QCEW
Wisconsin Economic Outlook: May 2024
[ad_1] The employment forecast improves – from Wisconsin DoR: Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), forecast from Nov. ’23 (red), from Feb. ’24
Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
[ad_1] Positive NFP employment surprise. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current transfers