Eswar Prasad: “Top Dollar” | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From a just-published article in Foreign Affairs: The story of the dollar is, ultimately, less about the United States’ strength than about the rest
June CBO Economic Outlook: Positive Output Gap through 2025
[ad_1] The CBO released an updated Economic Outlook yesterday. Projected PCE inflation is higher, as are budget deficits. For me, most interesting are the GDP
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Industrial production surprises on upside (0.9% vs. 0.3% m/m), while nominal retail sales increase modestly (0.1 actual vs. 0.3% consensus). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Probabilities from the June 2024 Meeting”
[ad_1] Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer
How Fast Is Nonfarm Payroll Employment Rising?
[ad_1] With the release of the Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, we have the following 12 month changes in employment (000’s) from different sources: From May
News Impact Illustrated: Jobs, CPI, PPI Releases
[ad_1] Following up on the PPI release (discussed along with other core measures) discussed here, how have markets responded, in terms of Fed funds futures, the
Senator Theoden* on ZeroHedge Debate on X Spaces
[ad_1] Doing a great imitation of Neville Chamberlain. Source: Aaronson (2024). Don’t have a transcript, but here are excerpts from Senator Theoden’s website. * Théoden Reference
Funniest Thing I Have Heard this Year: Wilbur Ross on Trump’s Trade Policy Success
[ad_1] Just heard Wilbur Ross say on Bloomberg (roughly 3:35 ET) “The President was serious about fixing the balance of payments problem of the US”.
All Down: Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures for May
[ad_1] Core PPI under consensus (0% vs. +0.3% m/m). Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) per Eeckhout (2023) for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI, seasonally adjusted
Misery and Modified Misery | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Conventional and Instantaneous The unweighted average of unemployment rate and inflation rate is ad hoc. Here’s the conventional using y/y CPI: Figure 1: Unemployment