Employment Situation and Business Cycle Indicators
[ad_1] NFP at +206K vs +191K. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding current
Consensus – Real Time Sahm Rule for June
[ad_1] Bloomberg consensus is 4%. This implies near trigger for the Sahm Rule (in real time): Figure 1: Real time Sahm Rule (blue), and consensus
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
[ad_1] Monthly GDP up two months in a row. Final sales in May up, but not offsetting completely decline in April. Here’s a picture of
What If ADP Is Registering the True Employment Growth Rate?
[ad_1] Then instead of 135224 thousand private employment in April, it would be 135509 thousand. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from BLS (blue), and
Latest Wisconsin Macro Indicators | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Last week we got GDP and wages and salaries for Q1, as well as employment and coincident indicators for May. With these data, we
Guest Contribution: “Central bank Credibility and Institutional Resilience”
[ad_1] Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Christopher A. Hartwell (ZHAW School of Management and Law, Switzerland), and Pierre Siklos
One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Stable
[ad_1] With Michigan final June survey out, we have this picture: Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan
Supreme Court Views on Price Stability and Full Employment
[ad_1] In the wake of the SCOTUS decision regarding Chevron deference, I investigate this issue. Here is a summary of academic research on Supreme Court
Instantaneous PCE inflation in May
[ad_1] PCE hits consensus. Instantaneous (weighted average of m/m inflation, with more recent observations having higher impact) headline and core down. Figure 1: Instantaneous PCE
Business Cycle Indicators, end-June | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Nominal PCE slightly below consensus (+0.2% vs. +0.3%). Here are some key business cycle indicators followed by NBER BCDC, with real personal income ex-transfers