Will Peter Navarro Be Right on Powell?
[ad_1] As noted earlier, Peter Navarro indicated Jerome Powell would be “gone in a hundred days”. Trump in a Bloomberg interview: “I would let [Powell]
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-July 2024
[ad_1] Industrial production at +0.6% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus (manufacturing production +0.4 vs. +0.2% consensus). Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue),
Russia Real GDP and GDP ex-Military Spending
[ad_1] Using the April 2024 WEO projections (the July update indicates no revision for 2024 growth, and -0.3 ppts for 2025 y/y), we can see
The Market Based SOFR Path
[ad_1] As of 7/15 and month ago: Source: Atlanta Fed, accessed 7/16/2024. The path has moved down noticeably over the last month, 3.67% to about
Russia Economic Sit-Rep: Recession in the Coming Year?
[ad_1] Gorodnichenko, in YahooFinance: Moscow’s economy is extremely dependent on petrodollars, or dollars obtained through the oil and gas trade, Gorodnichenko said. Yet, with Russia’s
Food Inflation Stable, Down in the Midwest
[ad_1] Through June: A comparison of conventional year-on-year vs. instantaneous. Figure 1: Food at home CPI component, y/y (blue), instantaneous per Eeckhout (2023), T=12, a=4
China Economic Sentiment | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From Torsten Slok/Apollo today, following up on the post yesterday: In his China slide deck, Slok presents a number of graphs depicting the headwinds
Recession Probabilities for June 2025
[ad_1] Probabilities have peaked, using a standard spread model. Here is an updated assessment of recession probabilities (for 12 months ahead), including data through June
China GDP News, and a View on Chinese Medicine
[ad_1] China q/q and y/y GDP below consensus, +0.7% vs +1.1% cons, +4.7% vs. +5.1% cons (Bloomberg). Here’re q/q (not annualized) rates: Source: NBS via