DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
[ad_1] Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A snapshot as of July: Figure 1: U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (FRED series UMCSENT) (blue), Conference Board Confidence (tan), SF Fed News Sentiment index
Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin
[ad_1] For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory: Figure 1: Wisconsin average hourly wages for all private sector workers, in 2017M12$ (blue),
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
[ad_1] Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant,
Macroeconomic Implications of Forced Mass Deportation
[ad_1] For whom the bell tolls? Undocumented? Documented but not naturalized? All non-native born? Native born with both parents undocumented? People hold signs that read,
Wisconsin Employment Rises versus Voter Perceptions
[ad_1] From DWD today: Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (bold blue), Philadelphia Fed early benchmark series (pink), Wisconsin May Economic Outlook forecast (gray), all
Vote Trump for Lower GDP, Higher Unemployment
[ad_1] From Wells Fargo today, using Oxford Economics macro model, simulating out the effects of Trump’s trade policies (as stated thus far). Addendum to yesterday’s
GDP Forecast: CBO above WSJ
[ad_1] WSJ July forecast relative to CBO, IMF WEO update, and GDPNow as of yesterday: Figure 1: GDP as reported (bold black), WSJ July survey
Vote Trump for Higher Inflation, Bigger Deficits, Higher Interest Rates
[ad_1] Messages from the WSJ July Survey: Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Source: July WSJ survey. Also, destroying the Fed and