Growth in Swing States | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As measured by the coincident index, over the last 3 months: Figure 1: 3 month growth in coincident index map. Swing states outlined. Source:
Odds: PredictIt 4pm ET | Econbrowser
[ad_1] For Rep/Dem, 53 cents/51 cents. Notes: Last o observation end-of-day July 26. + denote 4pm ET on 7/27/2024. For Kamala Harris 47th President, 51
Russia: Policy Rate Raised to 18%
[ad_1] As of today: For comparison, here is the y/y (official) inflation rate (through June). With the policy rate at 18%, and y/y inflation
Business Cycle Indicators at July’s End
[ad_1] Nominal consumption, PCE deflator m/m at consensus, nominal income at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. Here’s the picture of key NBER BCDC indicators plus monthly GDP:
2024Q2 GDP Advance Release: Too Good to Be True?
[ad_1] GDP surprised on the upside at 2.8% q/q AR vs. Bloomberg consensus 2.0%. One purported financial adviser writes: 2.8% Fake GDP is number are
Still strong after all these years
[ad_1] The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.8% annual rate in the first quarter. That’s
Prediction Markets on the Election: July 24, 2024
[ad_1] From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate. Source: Predict, accessed 7/24/2024, 4:30pm ET. Just
MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
[ad_1] Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia
CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge
[ad_1] From CBO report released yesterday. The budget deficit would’ve been larger in the absence of the surge: Figure 1: Baseline Federal budget balance to
Instantaneous Core Inflation | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Four out of five measures down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), PPI core (red),