An Eventful Week – Interest Rates
[ad_1] 10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week. Over this week, the end-of-year CME Fed funds futures has dropped 15 bps.
Employment: Different Measures | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), early
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
[ad_1] Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold
Trump Prediction Market Meltdown: COB 1 August 2024
[ad_1] From PredictIt on the Presidential Election Winner, 54 Dem / 48 Rep: [ad_2] Source link
“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
[ad_1] That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced
Updating the “Flip”
[ad_1] Yesterday, I asked if odds were flipping. As of midnight on PredictIt: As of now 11am ET: [ad_2] Source link
GDP Per Capita | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? Figure 1: GDP per capita (blue), lagged 4 years (orange), in 2017$, SAAR. Source:
Flip? Prediction Markets at July’s End
[ad_1] For party of winner, 50-50 as of noon ET today (PredictIt): There was a gap as of midnight this AM. Over the past 90
Inflation Expectations in July (and June)
[ad_1] Michigan is down in July, while business unit costs are up slightly. Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from
VoxEU: “The Russian sanctions and dollar foreign exchange reserves”
[ad_1] From a VoxEU article today, by Robert N. McCauley with Hiro Ito and Menzie Chinn: Will the freezing of the Bank of Russia’s foreign