Revisiting the Recession Call of 2022H1
[ad_1] Now that we’re talking recession (again), it seems like a good idea to remind ourselves of the last time some observers declared unequivocally that
Each Time I Read Something Out of WMC, I Experience Cognitive Dissonance
[ad_1] From the just-released Summer WMC Wisconsin Employer Survey: “There is no question that the mix of higher costs and higher interest rates are making
Recession Predictions from Six Months Ago
[ad_1] From a February 1st post: I use a regression of DSR growth rate on changes in AAA and 3 month Treasury yields, and 2
GDPNow vs. WSJ July Forecast
[ad_1] From Atlanta Fed today, 2.9% SAAR in Q3: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ July survey mean growth iterated on Q2 advance (teal), and
Recession Indicator Sit-Rep | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal
Bitcoin as Store of Value
[ad_1] Bitcoin vs. VIX: Notes: Accessed 8/5/2024, 3pm CT. [ad_2] Source link
Weekly Business Cycle Indicators – Data through 7/27
[ad_1] From the Lewis, Mertens, Stock NY Fed WEI, and the Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims Economic Conditions Index: Figure 1: WEI (blue), WECI plus 2% (tan),
Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET
[ad_1] From CME: Figure 1: Effective Fed funds (bold black), from futures as of 7/26 (teal), as of 8/2 (red), and of 8/5 noon ET
Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?
[ad_1] Consumers, CEO’s, or economists? Figure 1: Year-on-Year CPI inflation (bold black line), corresponding 1 year ahead inflation expectation from NY Fed consumer survey (blue
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
[ad_1] Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions. In the 2001 and 2008 recessions, the Sahm Rule (real time) threshold is passed when unemployment is rising