Podcast: On the Macroeconomy, and on Wisconsin
[ad_1] Me, interviewed with Buzz Kemper, on BadgerTalks, recorded on 8/6 (Episode 44). Some of the numbers I was thinking about: NBER indicators normalized to
Already in Recession? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez say 40% probability, yes. From the abstract to the paper: To answer this question, we develop a new Sahm-type
August Survey of Professional Forecasters: GDP
[ad_1] Continued growth: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), August Survey of Professional Forecasters (bold red), July WSJ (teal), GDPNow of 8/8 (light blue square), all
JD Vance: “The political leadership of this country should have a greater say on the monetary policy of the United States”
[ad_1] My transcription of JD Vance’s statement re: the Fed, on “State of the Union”, interviewed by Dana Bash today. Might’ve gotten a few words
Russia M/M Inflation at 1.1% in July
[ad_1] As reported by the Rosstat, via TradingEconomics: On an annualized basis, this is 14%. Y/Y inflation is 9.1%. The nominal policy rate stands at
High Frequency Recession Indicators | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Lewis/Mertens/Stock and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims weekly indicators, and Torsten Slok’s rundown. Figure 1: Lewis/Mertens/Stock Weekly Economic Index (blue), and Baumeister/Leiva-Leon/Sims Weekly Economic Conditions Index for US
Prediction Markets: RCP Average Flips
[ad_1] The RealClearPolitics betting average has typically lagged PredictIt, which flipped on 7/31. RCP’s betting average flipped on August 8, and now looks like this
Kursk in 2024 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] The largest tank battle in WWII took place around Kursk, not far from where the current Ukrainian incursion is. Source: Militaryland, accessed 8/9/2024. This
“Labor Department Quietly Cuts Employment Growth in Half”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article by Heritage’s EJ Antoni: In the last quarter of 2023, these monthly job reports showed an increase of
“Mandate for Leadership” (aka Project 2025) on Trade Policy: The Case for Fair Trade
[ad_1] I have delayed reviewing this portion of chapter 26 of the Project 2025 because I knew it would be painful to read. But as