At It Again: “Donald Trump promises an ‘economic boom’ if he wins US election”
[ad_1] That’s a title from FT. Remember when Trump promised 4% growth (in May 2017)? How did that turn out? Figure 1: GDP (black), and
Naval Deployments as of 8/12/2024
[ad_1] From the US Naval Institute: Source: USNI, accessed 8/15/2024. While the US is deploying (well-signaled) extra forces to the Mideast, the Geopolitical Risk index
Russia GDP Slowdown in Q2: 4% y/y Growth
[ad_1] From BOFIT today (as translated by Google): According to the Russian Statistical Institute’s preliminary estimate, Russia’s GDP grew by 4% year-on-year in April-June. Growth
Kursk 2024 – Update 8/15/2024
[ad_1] From MilitaryLand. Source: MilitaryLand, accessed 8/15/2024. Notable is that the forces involved include the 22nd and 88th Mechanized Brigades, as well as 80th Air
Business Cycle Indicators – NBER and Alternative – Mid-July 2024
[ad_1] With the Fed’s industrial production release (-0.6% m/m vs. -0.3% consensus) and retails sales (+1.0% m/m vs. +0.4% consensus), we have the following pictures,
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Five Measures
[ad_1] With the CPI release, we have new July observations for 3 series. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore
The Great Replacement “Theory” * Comes to Economics at Heritage
[ad_1] Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni writes on X (August 2): Over the last year, native-born Americans have LOST 1.2 million jobs while foreign-born employment
PPI Downside Surprise | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Core PPI 0.0% m/m vs +0.2% consensus (+2.4% y/y vs. +2.7% consensus). Here’s a picture of instantaneous core measures. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core
Oxford Economics: Recession at 3 & 6 Months Horizons
[ad_1] If you’re wondering about a recession by the time the election rolls around… Source: Pearce, Martin, Recession Monitor – Still no sign of a
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations down in July for Consumers, Firms, Economists
[ad_1] Last one for August (from Survey of Professional Forecasters). Figure 1: Year-on-year actual CPI inflation (bold black), and expected inflation from University of Michigan (red),