Conspiracy of Silence at the Treasury about the Definition of a Recession (!)
[ad_1] Not from the Onion, but rather from the Daily Signal, mouthpiece of the Heritage Foundation: The Treasury Department under President Joe Biden has refused
Guesses on the Preliminary Benchmark Revision to Nonfarm Payroll Employment
[ad_1] From Saraiva/Bloomberg: Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. economists expect the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions on Wednesday to show payrolls growth
Grocery Prices and Wholesale Food Prices
[ad_1] The Harris Walz plan for reining in grocery prices appears to contain two components, one of which has attracted a lot of attention (stopping
EJ Antoni on the Recession
[ad_1] of 2022H1, in light of his declaration of recession now. From August 1, 2022, from Heritage Explains episode “Biden’s Recession”: In terms of how
EJ Antoni: “manufacturing is in recession”
[ad_1] From X, on Thursday: This is beyond ridiculous: industrial production and capacity utilization saw another massive downward revision, and Jul’s print still came in
Layoffs and Mass Layoffs in Wisconsin
[ad_1] A few days ago, Eric Hovde spoke about impending mass layoffs. I couldn’t figure out what he was talking about; here’re some indicators for
“Non-Essential Business Cycles” and Implications for the Imminent Recession Call
[ad_1] From a paper by Michele Andreolli, Natalie S. Rickard, and Paolo Surico (presented at NBER Summer Institute Monetary Economics sessions): Using newly constructed time
Food at Home CPI Component: Unchanged Relative to January 2024
[ad_1] Prices are up relative to January 2021, but not relative to January 2024: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast as
Wisconsin Employment in July: Cooling
[ad_1] Preliminary NFP count is down 6.5K (on 3 million), unemployment rate up 0.1 ppts. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left scale), early benchmark
The Partisan Split in August Sentiment
[ad_1] Michigan 67.8 vs 66.7. Big jump in expectations 72.1 vs. 68.5 (as opposed to current situation). Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue),