Brad Setser on China’s True Trade Balance
[ad_1] Brad Setser has been diligently cross-checking the external accounts of China. For purposes of thinking about how policymakers are trying to snatch aggregate demand
EJ Antoni on the Current Recession
[ad_1] From EJ Antoni (Heritage), article entitled “Coming recession may already have arrived” in the Boston Herald (8/21): “…an increasing number of indicators say the
Economic Sentiment and Confidence in August
[ad_1] Conference Board’s Confidence Index exceeds consensus (103.3 > 100.9), with July index revised up. Here’re August readings for confidence, sentiment and news. Figure 1:
Different Counts of NFP Gains
[ad_1] All show gains since January 2023, save the CPS based. Figure 1: Cumulative change in NFP employment according to CES (bold black), implied preliminary
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn’t Work in the Old Days”
[ad_1] Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison and Steve Pak Yeung
Spreads in the Meatpacking Industry: Beef
[ad_1] Here’s the time series on beef farm-to-wholesale spread, in 1982-84$. Figure 1: Real retail price per pound (black line), wholesale-retail spread (tan bars), rest
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official
[ad_1] The ADP survey cumulative increase in private NFP since 2023M03 is 3.1mn, more than the 2.8mn reported in the current official CES series. In
Manufacturing in Recession? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Preliminary benchmark revision takes down March employment by 0.9%. Here’s a picture of various series relevant to the manufacturing sector. Figure 1: Manufacturing production
The Preliminary Benchmark Revision in Context
[ad_1] 818 downward revision in March 2024 NFP. Figure 1: Level of nonfarm payroll employment from CES (blue), implied from CES preliminary benchmark (red), from
Recession before the Election? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] I see a bevy of economists (a lot on the right, see here) saying we’re in a recession, or soon to be in one.