GDP Nowcasts: Continued Growth into Q3
[ad_1] We have plenty of competing assessments as of today. From three Federal Reserve Banks and Goldman Sachs. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of
Kudlow: “We Are in the Front End of a Recession”
[ad_1] Audio here, at 2:30 approximately. He also says private NFP gain is down to +56K, while private ex-health care and social services (all essentially
EJ Antoni/Heritage on What Unemployment Rate We Should Be Looking At
[ad_1] EJ Antoni/Heritage writes alarmingly about how excluding marginally attached workers from the calculation of unemployment is misleading: Once you factor in the millions of
The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
[ad_1] Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This
Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy
[ad_1] From Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024): [ad_2] Source link
Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release
[ad_1] Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).
Employment Slowdown in Context | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like? Figure
A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]
[ad_1] The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while
Peter Schiff on Recession | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Peter Schiff today: This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than
Business Cycle Indicators as of September’s Start
[ad_1] Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (bold blue), implied