End-of-Week Nowcasts | Econbrowser
[ad_1] St. Louis and NY Feds have new nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Survey of Professional Forecasters August median forecast (tan), GDPNow of 9/9
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Up, Inflation Expectations Down
[ad_1] Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board Consumer Confidence (tan, left scale), both demeaned and normalized by standard deviation
Real Average Wages | Econbrowser
[ad_1] On the rise: Figure 1: Real average earnings for production and non-supervisory workers, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (tan), both in 2023$. Chained
Scary Movie: Pseudo-Economics Edition | Econbrowser
[ad_1] EJ Antoni/Heritage presents this picture which should scare the beejeebus out of us. Source: EJ Antoni/X. I can imagine Secretary Yellen trying to “strongarm”
Nationwide Grocery Prices at 2024M01 Levels
[ad_1] From the CPI release: Figure 1: CPI – food at home (blue), ERS forecast as of January (red triangle), ERS forecast as of August
Instantaneous Core Inflation, with PPI and Nowcasted PCE Deflator
[ad_1] With the PPI release, and Cleveland Fed PCE nowcast as of today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan),
Mackintosh/WSJ: “A Recession Signal Is Flashing Red. Or Is It?”
[ad_1] Article today on whether it matters if dis-inversion occurs because short rates fall, or long rates rise. Two years ago, the inversion of the
Five Measures of Instantaneous Core Inflation
[ad_1] With August CPI release, we have core, chained core, and supercore. PPI comes tomorrow. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI
High Frequency Prices in Presidential Prediction Markets
[ad_1] From PredictIt, just one hour into the debate: Trump is dark blue, Harris is light blue. [ad_2] Source link
Gasoline Prices Down… | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As recorded by EIA. Near month futures for WTI are $66.1; futures for delivery in March are $64.5 (i.e., oil futures are in