Business Cycle Indicators for August – NBER BCDC and Others
[ad_1] With the industrial production release today (+0.8% vs. +0.2% m/m consensus), we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
FT-Ross/Michigan Poll on Views of Candidates’ Economic Policies
[ad_1] Who would do better, according to the FT today: Source: FT, 16 Sep 2024. And who would benefit from the policies of respective candidates?
Guest Contribution: “Impact of Climate Risk on Fiscal Space: Does Political Stability and Financial Development Matter?”
[ad_1] Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Jamel Saadaoui (University Paris 8). The recent literature establishes that climate risk reduces the fiscal
When Tariffs Last Bloomed – Soybean Edition
[ad_1] Or, have US soybean exports recovered since Trump last reigned? Not in volumes. Source: Colusi, et al. (2024). Marking for trade war in 2018
Manufacturing: When Tariffs Last Bloomed
[ad_1] Lest we forget, a visual recap of what exactly happened when Trump started announcing Section 232 and Section 301 measures. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment
Heterogeneous Responses of Sentiment, Expectations to Economic News
[ad_1] From the Michigan survey of consumers: Figure 1: Consumer Sentiment for Democratic/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), Independent (gray, left scale), Republican/lean Republican (red, left
BOFIT: “Russia continued on a more moderate growth path in July..”
[ad_1] From BOFIT: Russian economic growth slowed significantly in June, but sustained its lower pace in July. According to Russian economic development ministry’s preliminary estimate,
FT-Booth Survey of Macroeconomists: Whose Platform Is More Inflationary/Deficit Expanding?
[ad_1] From the September survey, as shown in yesterday’s FT: Source: C. Smith, FT, 14 Sep 2024. It’s amazing to me that there’re 3% of
FT-Booth September Survey of Macroeconomists: Growth or Recession?
[ad_1] For GDP, no recession on the short horizon: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September median forecast (blue box), NY Fed nowcast (red triangles),
August 2024 Wisconsin Economic Outlook Forecast
[ad_1] Released yesterday: Based upon the S&P Global national forecast, DoR concludes: Wisconsin employment is expected to grow by 0.8% in 2024. Wisconsin’s unemployment rate