Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate
Is Manufacturing In Recession? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
[ad_1] Ad hoc time series analysis. The 30 year mortgage rate and 10 year Treasury constant maturity yield comove over the past 8 years. A
Change in Fed Funds vs. Where the Fed Funds Should Be
[ad_1] At the press conference for today’s FOMC meeting, there was a lot of talk about how the 50bps drop was dramatic. That focused on
Instantaneous Headline Inflation: CPI, PCE, HICP
[ad_1] With US HICP out today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (brown), and HICP (green), per Eeckhout (2023).
Summary of Economic Projections: GDP
[ad_1] From the Fed today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Summary of Economic Projections median (inverted light green triangle), GDPNow as of 9/18 (light blue
Ten Year Treasury Yields, Dollar Index Down
[ad_1] Apparently some news: Source: TradingEconomics.com at 1:20 CT. Source: TradingEconomics.com at 1:24 CT. [ad_2] Source link
GDPNow at 3% for Q3
[ad_1] Goldman Sachs tracking 2.8%. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow as of 9/17 (light blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking as of 9/17 (pink circle),
Steve Kamin: “The Fed Is (Nearly) the World’s Most Hawkish Central Bank”
[ad_1] From the article (published 9/10), two key graphs: So… …with inflation nearly down to target levels while signs of economic slowing mount, the Fed
Monthly Median Income
[ad_1] From Motio Research, August 2024: Source: MotioResearch. [ad_2] Source link