Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation below 2%
[ad_1] With August data: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI core (red),
Lessons in Why We Don’t Judge Recessions on the Basis of GDP
[ad_1] Part 1,434,237. (Previously [1] [2] [3][4][5] [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] [13] ) Remember EJ Antoni, declaring a recession occurring in 2022H1? In
Betting Markets on the Election, Again
[ad_1] Perhaps someone can tell me why we get such different bets depending on platform (and why doesn’t RealClearPolitics include PredictIt)? First, something that popped
Decomposing the Revision to GDO
[ad_1] One of the interesting aspects of the annual revision is that, contrary to what happens with typical (non-annual) revisions, GDI moved toward GDP, rather
Per Capita Growth under Trump vs. Biden
[ad_1] Growth in the first three years of Biden was 3.0%, vs 2.1% under Trump (pre-pandemic). Figure 1: Per capita GDP in Ch.2017$ SAAR (gray),
Nowcasting Wisconsin GDP | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Suppose it’s the end of August, and one want to get the best estimate of Wisconsin real GDP for Q2. As of August, only
Diffusion Indexes for August | Econbrowser
[ad_1] CFNAI and state-level coincident indices suggest softening in activity. Figure 1: CFNAI diffusion index (blue, left scale), and coincident index diffusion index for 3
The Low Consumer Sentiment/Confidence Puzzle Resolved?
[ad_1] In the past few years, a persistently low level of consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, Conference Board, or Gallup surveys,
Guest Contribution: “Latin America’s Non-Linear Monetary Response to Pandemic Inflation”
[ad_1] Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Steven Kamin (AEI), formerly Director of the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board.
China Policy Moves in Context
[ad_1] PBoC and financial regulators act, but even with fiscal measures underway, are unlikely to drastically change the path of the economy. As summarized by