Are You Better Off Than You Were 4 Years Ago
Per capita GDP relative to 1st quarter of new administration: Figure 1: GDP relative to 2021Q1 (blue), and GDP four years ago relative to 2017Q1
Republican Study Group Proposals | Econbrowser
Text here. Includes raising the retirement age for Social Security an indeterminate amount (The Hill). See expenditure reduction in the table below: Source: RSC (2024).
FOMC March SEP on GDP
2024 q4/q4 growth at 2.1% matches FT-IGM survey discussed in previous post. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (blue), Survey of Professional Forecasters (red),
Over 300 Years of Central Bank Rates
An interesting picture from Jim Reid/Deutsche Bank: Source: Jim Reid/DeutscheBank. Source link
WaPo: “In Wisconsin, a vote for Biden or Trump could come down to grocery prices”
That article prompted me to wondered whether Wisconsin’s grocery prices had moved up faster than the Nation’s. They have! “Everything is so damn high,” she
March FT-Booth Macroeconomists Survey: GDP, Recession, r*
The FT-Booth Macroeconomist Survey was released today. GDP is slated to grow 2.1% in 2024, q4/q4. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO projection (blue), Survey
Is the Fed Looking at FAIT? If so, What Would It Imply?
A reader takes issue with my post showing y/y and instantaneous core PCE deflator versus 2% target, noting (correctly) that as of 2020, the Fed’s
Immigration 2021-23: Supply and Demand Shock
Or, why has the US done so well. Part of it’s immigration. From Goldman Sachs “Upgrading Our GDP and Payrolls Forecasts to Reflect Elevated Immigration
How Close to Target? | Econbrowser
Technically, the Fed targets the PCE deflator, but many use the core PCE as a proxy. I show what the data indicate, including the Cleveland
“Grocery Prices Have Soared. That’s Spoiling Biden’s Economic Pitch”
That’s the title of an article in Bloomberg today. Here’s a picture of headline CPI and the “food at home” category. Figure 1: Headline CPI