CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
[ad_1] CPI m/m at 0.1% vs. 0.1% consensus (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore,
Wisconsin Exports during Trump Trade War 1.0
[ad_1] A reminder: Figure 1: Wisconsin exports of goods in millions $ (blue), in millions of 2000$ (tan), n.s.a. Wisconsin exports deflated by US export
Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
[ad_1] Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0: Source: NOAA. Following: Source:Time, Feb 1, 2020. From Project 2025, Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise on page 666:
GDPNow Up to 3.2% SAAR
[ad_1] GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10/1 to 3.2% on 10/8 (q/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases. Source: Atlanta
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
[ad_1] Reader Steven Kopits writes: Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since. No
Business Cycle Indicators for the Euro Area, as of 10/4/2024
[ad_1] The CEPR-EABCN is one arbiter of business cycle chronologies in the Euro Area. The latest announcement is from April 17, 2024. What do more
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
[ad_1] From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up. Figure
Will Household Wealth Be a Tailwind to Consumption in 2024Q3?
[ad_1] Here’s a picture of household net worth, in both nominal and real terms, with my nowcasts for Q3. Figure 1: Household net worth (blue),
State of the Macro Economy, 10/6/2024: 19 Indicators and 4 Nowcasts
[ad_1] NBER BCDC indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators, nowcasts. As one who noted the high likelihood of recession by August 2024, I can’t see a
Employment Overall, and at Smaller Firms
[ad_1] While overall private employment has risen, firms with 1-49 employees have kept employment flat in recent months. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment from