Fed Inflation Credibility Measured | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Has the Fed lost credibility, as some people have argued (e.g., EJ Antoni)? One way to assess credibility is to see whether people’s expectations
WSJ October Survey: GDP On the Rise
[ad_1] Only one forecaster projects two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Here’s the WSJ mean forecast compared to nowcasts: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ
Inflation: A Discussion in Milwaukee
[ad_1] A Main Street Agenda town hall meeting on inflation to be held today, Tuesday, Oct. 15, from 6 to 8 p.m. at the Clinton
Guest Contribution: “Social Security Reform: Between a Cliff and a Hard Place”
[ad_1] Today we present a guest post written by Lindsay Jacobs, Assistant Professor at the Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, at the University
Recession since 2022? A Magic Asterisk-Mystery Meat-Special Sauce Approach to National Income Accounting
[ad_1] In a recent paper, Antoni and St. Onge (2024) have argued that the peak in GDP, properly measured, was in 2021Q4. Source: Antoni and
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
[ad_1] Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged
Why So Glum? Sentiment by Partisan Grouping
[ad_1] Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why? First, consider a text based index of economic news, compared against consumer sentiment disaggregated
Instantaneous Core Prices | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Updated to include core PPI: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI
Contextualizing the Inflationary Impact of the 10%/60% Trump Tariff Plan
[ad_1] I was trying to think about how to contextualize the impact of the Trump 10%/60% tariffs on inflation. McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024) trace out the impact