Recession after the Election? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Charles Payne joins the recession camp. Current indicators are not very supportive of an imminent recession: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue),
Prediction Markets Moving on “News” (on One Poll)
[ad_1] Apparently, one poll in Iowa has moved PredictIt. Harris v Trump, 52-53 now flipped to 57-50. Both markets accessed 7:05pm CT on 11/2/2024. I
UMich Sentiment Catching Up with the (Good Economic) News?
[ad_1] From TradingEconomics on 10/25: The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised higher to 70.5 in October 2024 from a preliminary
Business Cycle Indicators as of November’s Start
[ad_1] Employment for October and monthly GDP for September, in the set of variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC: Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from
The Employment Release: Downside Surprise, Signifying?
[ad_1] NFP +12K vs. consensus +106K, private NFP -28K vs. +90K; but wage growth (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and average weekly hours both above (34.3
Prediction Markets, FWIW | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Reversion, seen over the past month. Why? Unclear given small movements in swing state polls. I would expect these odds to match, pretty closely,
“The Economy would grow under Harris. Under Trump, expect higher prices and debt.”
[ad_1] By Menzie Chinn and Mark Copelovitch A Harris administration is far less likely to disrupt the ongoing and unprecedented American economic recovery of the
Private NFP Nowcast | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Based on ADP-Stanford Digital Economy Lab series for October. Figure 1: Private nonfarm payroll employment (bold black), nowcast based on error correction model using
Son of ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy”
[ad_1] Heritage Foundation EJ Antoni channels ShadowStats: “Government economic figures hide the truth about the economy…” Thang [sic] you,@mises , for highlighting a recent paper
Instantaneous Inflation: PCE, Market Based PCE, HICP, CPI, and Chained CPI
[ad_1] With PCE deflators released today: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (blue), chained CPI (dark red), PCE deflator (bold black), PCE market