Why Friends Don’t Let Friends Define Recessions as Two Consecutive Quarters of Negative GDP Growth
[ad_1] That’s exactly what EJ Antoni did in “Biden’s Recession” (August 1, 2022): In terms of how we define it or what marks a recession,
EJ Antoni: “factor in the millions of people missing from the labor market (don’t have jobs but are excluded from official unemployment calculation)”
[ad_1] That’s a plea from an X post a year ago. He presented various calculations (which are hard to replicate, because he does funny things
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
[ad_1] Including Philadelphia Fed early benchmark, released today. Several series are below recent peaks, including the early benchmark. Figure 1: CES Nonfarm
Miran: “I don’t see any material inflation from tariffs…”
[ad_1] From CNN. OK. From the Pricing Lab: [ad_2] Source link
Everyday Prices (Still) Going Up – and Big Mac for Me, but not for Thee
[ad_1] From the American Institute for Economic Research, compared to CPI, and CPI for fast food… Figure 1: CPI all urban (blue),
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment Declines in August
[ad_1] From DWD release today: Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue). Source: BLS, DWD. Manufacturing employment in Wisconsin is now
Civilian Employment Peaked in April 2025
[ad_1] So too has CPS series adjusted to NFP concept, a series pushed in the wake of the slow employment recovery from
EJ Antoni ‘s”Sustainable” Employment Measure Is in the Red
[ad_1] EJ Antoni noted a year ago (Sept 6, 2024): gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth].. it’s all tax-payer funded,
One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
[ad_1] FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan from CEA), who argued
Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll from CES (bold