Further Dollar Appreciation: Implications | Econbrowser
[ad_1] What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor rule reaction function, when
Did the Trade Balance Improve with Tariffs? Did Imports Fall? Did Ag Exports Rise?
[ad_1] Answers: No. No. No. Figure 1: Net exports in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR (blue, left scale), nominal as share of GDP (tan, right scale). NBER defined
Analyses on the Impacts of Trump’s Proposed Ultimate Solution
[ad_1] Given the results of the election, and Mr. Trump’s statement that deportations will start immediately, there will be a need for facts. I recommend
The Recession Call Revisited | Econbrowser
[ad_1] There was a noisy minority of analysts thinking we were in, or imminently in, recession (see a list here). It’ll be interesting to see
“The Recession of 2025 Will Be Backdated” to 2022
[ad_1] Thet’s Jeffrey Tucker in the Epoch Times via ZeroHedge. It’s a reasonable supposition that a recession will become obvious to all by next summer.
Debt-to-GDP under Trump 1.0 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A reminder, so when next you hear about fiscal restraint. Figure 1: Debt held by the public as share of GDP (blue), and as
Inflation Breakevens, Term Spreads Up pre-FOMC
[ad_1] As of yesterday COB: Figure 1: Ten year breakeven (blue), five year breakeven (red), in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. Figure 2: 10yr-2yr Treasury
Everyday Price Inflation at 0.3% y/y?
[ad_1] Versus 2.4% for the CPI (in logs). Lots of people think the government’s statistics understates the true inflation rate. It used to be John
Some Last Pictures: Trade War 2.0
[ad_1] Impact on a typical family: Source: Brendan Duke, CAP. From McKibben, Hogan, Noland (2024), cost to US economy from 10% tariffs, in GDP and
Farmers of the Nation, Unite! You Have Nothing to Lose but Possible Retaliation against Soybeans and Corn
[ad_1] From the National Corn Growers Association: U.S. soybeans and corn are prime targets for tariffs. As the top two export commodities for our country,