The Echo Chamber of Stupid: “Recession since 2022”
[ad_1] Daniel Lacalle via Zerohedge writes Professors EJ Antony and Peter St Onge recently published an excellent study, “Recession Since 2022: US Economic Income and
The Return of Economic Policy Uncertainty
[ad_1] Not that it ever disappeared completely. But expect the EPU to rise as the tariffs start flying, and the deportations begin. Figure 1: Economic
Guest Contribution: “The anti-incumbent wave is real. But it’s not (really) about inflation”
[ad_1] Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution by Mark Copelovitch (Political Science and La Follette School, University of Wisconsin – Madison) and
Wisconsin Employment Rises in October
[ad_1] NFP and private NFP up (although below recent peaks), while civilian employment rises. Figure 1: Wisconsin Nonfarm Payroll Employment (dark blue), Philadelphia Fed early
Structural Breaks in the Term Spread-GDP Growth Relationship
[ad_1] Following up on the examination of what the term spread predicts, here’s the slope coefficients for the term spread, in regressions augmented with short
What Does the Term Spread Predict? IP, GDP, Coincident Index?
[ad_1] It’s commonplace to correlate term spreads with future economic activity measured one way or thSo, while other. Recessions in the US do seem to
Business Cycle Indicators – Mid-November
[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production down at consensus rate (-0.3% m/m for both). Core retail sales +0.1% vs. consensus +0.3% m/m. First up, series followed
Instantaneous Inflation Rates | Econbrowser
[ad_1] PPI and core PPI y/y slightly above consensus: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for CPI (bold blue), PCE deflator (green), PCE market based
Instantaneous Core Inflation: Various Measures
[ad_1] Core up, but supercore down: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan), supercore CPI (pink), services supercore (light green), PPI
TIPS Yield, Inflation Breakeven and Dollar Rise
[ad_1] Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function. Figure 1: TIPS constant maturity 5 year yield (blue), five year