When Econ 101 Isn’t Enough: Oren Cass on Trade
[ad_1] In Tuesday’s NYT, Oren Cass makes the case for protectionism. It would be wonderful to see economists willing to try a new course when
Sentiment, Confidence, and Expectations: The Latter Is Down
[ad_1] U.Michigan consumer sentiment and Conference Board economic confidence rise. But expectations drop. Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (blue, left scale), Conference Board
Maheshri and Winston: “The U.S.’s Decades Long 2nd Great Depression”
[ad_1] In RealClearPolitics, a provocative thesis, from Vikram Maheshri (U. Houston) and Cliff Winston* (Brookings): The United States experienced a Great Depression during the 1930s
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NBER BCDC indicators discussed here. Alternative below. Figure 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted using CBO immigration estimates
An Alternative Perspective on PCE Deflator Inflation: Instantaneous Inflation
[ad_1] PCE deflator below 2%: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation (T=12, a=4) for PCE deflator (black), for core PCE deflator (pink), CPI (tan), and year-on-year PCE
“More and more market participants don’t believe the Fed anymore.”
[ad_1] That’s Heritage Foundation economist EJ Antoni yesterday. Dr. Antoni continues: Increasingly, people are realizing that the 2% target is long gone. We’re looking at
“Putin’s Central Banker Angers Russian Elite With Rate Hikes”
[ad_1] Or, “who needs a stinkin’ independent central bank, non-Trump edition.” Could this article explain why at 1:30 AM CST as I awaited data on
Business Cycle Indicators for November 2024
[ad_1] Consumption and personal income ex-transfers growth accelerate. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) employment from CES (blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark (bold blue), civilian
FT-Booth December Survey of Macroeconomists
[ad_1] 2025 q4/q4 growth median forecast is 2.3%. Here’s a comparison against forecasts and nowcasts. Figure 1: GDP, 3rd release (bold black), GDPNow of 12/18
Betting on Shutdown: Thanks, Trump!
[ad_1] From Kalshi, 7pm CT today: Source: Kalshi, accessed 7pm CT 19 December 2024. [ad_2] Source link