Risks, 2025 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Top of my list: Source: Kalshi, accessed 1/3/2025. Would this be bad news? Well, yes. But worse yet given the incoming administration. For proof,
The Price and Income Elasticities of US Trade Flows
[ad_1] JW Mason asserts that, in focusing on the real exchange rate, I’m on the side of relative prices being the primary determinant of flows.
My Favorite Graph: Lagged RER-NX
[ad_1] Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time
A Manufacturing Recession? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Once again, Heritage’s EJ Antoni speaks (on Fox) about a manufacturing recession, focusing on employment. I’ll just point out that, according to the most
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators as of the Year’s Start
[ad_1] The Philadelphia Fed’s Coincident Index is out, 2.1% m/m annualized (2.6% y/y): Figure 1: Implied nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment adjusted
Year End Disinversion: Bull or Bear Steepening?
[ad_1] With December 31 data, here’s the picture of term spreads: Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue), 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red), both in
Year in Review, 2024: Mendacity and Economic Incompetence, Equal Parts
[ad_1] I thought I was getting a little jaded, but the likes of Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni, the WisGOP, and Steve Kopits reaffirmed my faith
What If? Thoughts on the No Excess Demand Scenario
[ad_1] It’s become commonplace to assert that the passage of the American Rescue Plan ignited inflation, dooming the prospects for the Biden and Harris candidacies.
“Revisiting the Relationship Between Debt and Long-Term Interest Rates”
[ad_1] From CBO, a working paper by Andre R. Neveu (FDIC) and Jeffrey Schafer (CBO) on the debt sensitivity of the interest rate (DSIR): Source:
Intra-industry Trade Estimated | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Oren Cass argues the idea of comparative advantage driving trade is outdated. I agree to a certain extent, but he doesn’t explain why. I’d