Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (assuming nothing else happens in January)
[ad_1] From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing
Pecuniary Benefits of Showing the Flag
[ad_1] From Tillman and Yun, “Gains from Gunboats: U.S. Aircraft Carriers and Financial Markets in East Asia” (2025). Asia, in particular East Asia and the
Six Measures of NFP Change since 2023M12, Four Measures of Private NFP
[ad_1] What do different measures say about the trajectory (rather than level) of employment? For nonfarm payroll employment: Figure 1: Change since 2023M12 in nonfarm
Employment in December | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Contrary to expectations, nonfarm payroll employment surprises +256K vs. +164K Bloomberg consensus. The standard deviation of changes is 85K, with mean +186 (over 2024),
Rhodium Group: Another Estimate of Chinese GDP Growth
[ad_1] From Rhodium Group (h/t Stephen Nagy): Some alternative estimates from BOFIT (November): The lower bound on the BOFIT alternatives is about equal to Gao
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
[ad_1] Five year breakeven up, dollar up. Figure 1: Five year Treasury breakeven (black, left scale), 5 year expected inflation (light blue, left scale), both
Teaching Macro Policy (Upper Division Undergrad), 2025
[ad_1] Iterating toward new readings for Econ 442 (Macroeconomic Policy). Last year I added to the undergrad course climate change and r*. Thanks for suggestions
Wisconsin Economic Outlook (Nov 2024)
[ad_1] This forecast from the Wisconsin Dept of Revenue based on S&P Global national forecast finalized before the election. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (black),
Term Spreads in Advanced Economies One Year Ago, and Conditions Today
[ad_1] A year ago, Laurent Ferrara and I documented the explanatory power of the term spread for recessions across countries. Here’re the 10yr-3mo spreads in
US Economic Policy Uncertainty: Buckle Up!
[ad_1] EPU through yesterday, and VIX as of 2pm today: Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale) and 7 day centered moving average (red, left scale),