Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]
[ad_1] When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call? General St. Louis Fed FRED economic database Thousands of time series on economic
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
[ad_1] From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025: Notes: Month-by-month accumulation of estimated costs of each year’s billion-dollar disasters, with colored lines showing 2024 (red) and
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
[ad_1] That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means… The resolution of the
150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread
[ad_1] Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
[ad_1] From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“:
CBO on the “Trump 10/60 Tariffs”
[ad_1] That’s my name for Trump’s 10% universal tariffs plan augmented with additional 60% on Chinese imports. h/t to Torsten Slok for the CBO letter.
“… the turn of the 21st century was a significant inflection point in the US economy. “
[ad_1] A reader sends me a missive with this line, and (among others) a picture of manufacturing employment. I reproduce (on an annual basis) this
CBO, Biden Administration, IMF and Other Forecasts
[ad_1] CBO released its ten year outlook today. Continued but decelerating growth, slightly less optimistic than Administration, noticeably less than the IMF, and FT-Booth survey.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-January
[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production (+0.9% m/m vs. +0.3% consensus; +0.6% m/m vs. +0.2% consensus), retail sales (control) surprise on the upside. First, indicators followed
Administration Forecast vs. FT-Booth, SPF vs. Nowcast
[ad_1] From the Economic Report of the President, 2025, forecast finalized 7 November 2024. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), Administration (light blue square), SPF median