I Guess I Picked the Wrong Week…
[ad_1] to you know what (apologies to Abrahams and the Zuckers). In one day, US taxes roughly $2.4 trn worth of goods (2023 amounts). Biggest
Canadian Oil, Tariffs, and Gas Prices
[ad_1] Should’a bought that EV! Joseph Brusuelas notes tariffs should show up in gas prices in the Midwest pretty quick. Source: Brusuelas (2025). Current price
The Price Elasticity of Avocado Supply, Demand, and Tariff Pass Through
[ad_1] I was pondering whether the US is a large country insofar as tariffs on avocados are concerned. Since 90% of consumption is from Mexico,
Economic Policy Uncertainty and VIX on the Eve of (Trade) Destruction
[ad_1] Through 1/31/2025, in anticipation of tariffs that might or might not be announced today. Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), 7 day centered moving
On the Eve of (Trade) Destruction*
[ad_1] The White House has confirmed imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China tomorrow (Feb 1). Why are tariffs on Canada and Mexico different
Business Cycle Indicators – Where’s that Recession?
[ad_1] Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP. Seven days ago , DiMartino Booth at 13:50, says
Bessent’s 3-3-3 “Plan” in the Context of 2024Q4 Advance GDP Release
[ad_1] Actual hit GDPNow nowcast of 2.3%, q/q AR (see Jim’s post for a discussion) Still, achieving Treasury Secretary Bessent’s 3% annual growth (in addition
U.S. economic growth continues | Econbrowser
[ad_1] The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. That’s
2024Q4 Advance Release Tomorrow | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Bloomberg consensus 2.7%, GDPNow 2.3% as of today. Jim Hamilton comments on the release tomorrow. Figure 1: GDP (teal bars), Q4 is GDPNow, and
Guest Contribution: “The Federal Funds Rate: FOMC Projections, Policy Rule Prescriptions, and Futures Market Predictions from the December 2024 Meeting”
[ad_1] Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan-Boul, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston and Economics Lecturer at Stanford University.