The Mother of All Magic Asterisks
[ad_1] The House Budget, as expected, is not a serious document — see the tables. I’ll skip the fantasy spending cuts, and focus on revenue
Dis-Inversion and Re-Inversion over the Last 3 Months
[ad_1] Not sure what it means, but I suspect heightened growth anxieties for the 4 month to 3 years horizon. Figure 1: Yield curve on
Consumer Expectations Crash, 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations Soar as 5 Year Ahead Hits Record
[ad_1] 5 year ahead inflation at 3.5%, highest since 1995M04. From Michigan Survey of Consumers: Figure 1: Michigan Survey Consumer Expectations (bold black), Democratic (light
Bringing Prices Down: A Progress Report
[ad_1] We’re a month into Trump 2.0. We don’t have February’s prices yet, but since Trump was going to do everything “Day 1”, I thought
What — If Anything — Do Re-inverting Term Spreads Mean?
[ad_1] Open question – we’re not quite there yet. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue), and 10yr-2yr spread (red), both in %. Source: Treasury
No Recession until 2025Q4 (Assuming Reciprocal Tariffs w/Retaliation)
[ad_1] And CBO’s January projection: Here’s implied GDP using the Budget Lab’s analysis, and the CBO’s current law projection: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), CBO
EPU and Expected Inflation | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From election day, five year inflation breakeven up 33 bps; EPU up 231. What could go wrong? Figure 1: Top graph – EPU (blue),
NBC News: “USDA says it accidentally fired officials working on bird flu and is trying to rehire them”
[ad_1] From NBC News. I know the Trump Administration doesn’t care about ordinary people dying from malnutrition, lack of access to health care, plane crashes,
Anthony Diercks, Daniel Soques and Jing Cynthia Wu: “Perfect Recession Indicators”
[ad_1] From the abstract to the paper: Define a perfect recession predictor as one that correctly predicts every recession and does not falsely signal a
Policy Uncertainty in the US, Globally
[ad_1] as measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis’s EPU. I was in Europe, and conversations were in high gear about how things now seemed. And