Off a Cliff | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP
Egg Prices Keep on Rising
[ad_1] From Trading Economics today: Figure 1: Gray line is TradingEconomics forecast. Orange line at 1/21/2025. Source: TradingEconomics, accessed 2/27/2025. Egg prices as measured here
Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend
[ad_1] For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22. Figure 1: Weekly Economic Index (Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed) (blue), and Weekly Economic
The Betting on Measles | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Sad news informs the revision to odds on measles cases this year: Betting is on 834 cases; on January 20th (Trump’s inauguration), the betting
Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…
[ad_1] As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … 0%. Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red,
Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned”
[ad_1] Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board
EPU Today: 655 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A big jump: Figure 1: EPU (blue), 7 day centered moving average (red). Dashed orange line at election. Source: policyuncertainty.com via FRED. Yesterday’s move
NFP Prospects | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Kalshi betting right now is for 300K reduction in force for the Federal government (h/t Torsten Slok): Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (bold black),
A Fed Inflation Credibility Index under Trump
[ad_1] Using 5 year ahead inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, not so much erosion in Trump 1.0. Trump 2.0 so far is another story.
Guess I Picked the Wrong Week to…Stop Recommending Vaccinations
[ad_1] From the betting markets (Kalshi.com) yesterday: [ad_2] Source link