Soybeans (Again!) | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Deja vu all over again – China retaliates, and again soybeans are on the list. Also a lot of other food items. Some people
EPU on the Rise
[ad_1] EPU through 3/3/2025: Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue), and 7 day centered moving average (red). Source: policyuncertainty.com. [ad_2] Source link
The Inversion Continues | Econbrowser
[ad_1] While VIX is elevated: Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red, left scale), both in %; VIX at close (green,
Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?
[ad_1] Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today: Now, as has been pointed out, some of this drop as of 28 February was driven
Nowcasted Consumption Falls to Stall Speed
[ad_1] A week ago, Atlanta Fed’s nowcast of consumption was 2.2% q/q annualized; now it’s zero. Figure 1: Nonresidential equipment investment (blue, left scale), consumption
Policy Uncertainty
[ad_1] High frequency through 3/2: Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty (blue), and 7 day centered moving average (red). Source: policyuncertainty.com. [ad_2] Source link
Reinversion Continues | Econbrowser
[ad_1] End of week spreads: Figure 1: 10yr-3mo Treasury spread (blue, left scale), 10yr-2yr Treasury spread (red, left scale), both in %; VIX at close
Instantaneous Inflation Rising | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Year-on-Year looks better. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation per Eeckhout (2023) for CPI (blue) PCE deflator (green), PCE deflator (brown). Source: BLS, BEA via FRED, and author’s
Recession Outlook Darkening
[ad_1] From betting markets, economists: From Bloomberg, h/t Torsten Slok: [ad_2] Source link