Is a Recession Still Coming?
[ad_1] Despite the lack of coincident indicators suggesting a recession’s onset (we’ll see more on Friday), there are plenty of articles now suggesting an imminent
ADP Private NFP Growth Underwhelms
[ad_1] +77K vs. +141K (Bloomberg consensus). Using the 2021M07-2025M01 relationship between ADP and BLS measures (in log first differences), I nowcast +125 vs Bloomberg +108K
Macro Lecture Notes on Mass Deportation/Immigration Restriction
[ad_1] From Econ442, yesterday’s lecture: Main Impacts• Reduced immigration (legal, undocumented)– Reduced labor force– Reduced consumption– Reduced inflows into Social Security,Medicare trust funds• Mass deportation
The Outlook for Grocery Prices and Eggs (pre-tariff)
[ad_1] So much for grocery prices dropping on day one. Some forecasts from ERS, TradingEconomics: Figure 1: CPI food-at-home component (bold black), ERS January forecast
Trump’s Economic Team and Tariff-fest 2025
[ad_1] Years (or months) from now, if the economy goes into recession, remember this is the team that brought you that outcome. Notes: Clockwise from
(Would’a Been) Biggest Tax Increase Ever!
[ad_1] Update to this post. In nominal dollar terms. Thanks, Trump. Notes: Tax increase associated with announced Trump tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China assuming
Spot the “Events” in this Event Study
[ad_1] Dow Jones: TradingEconomics as of 10am CT, 3/4/2025. [ad_2] Source link
GDPNow Assuming No Import Effects: Still Close to Stall Speed
[ad_1] Assume no revision to GDP prospects from the imports data, as Goldman Sachs did. What is the path of GDP growth, and the level
Browbeating Trump’s Bete Noire into Submission via Trade War
[ad_1] Trump can’t even do that right. Source: Economist, accessed 3/4/2025, 2pm CT. I’m waiting to see if Ontario cuts off electricity…Should do wonders for
Recession (Betting) Odds Rising
[ad_1] From Kalshi, 10am CT: Source: Kalshi, accessed 3/4/2025 10am CT. [ad_2] Source link