Policy Uncertainty since the Election
As measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis: Figure 1: EPU (news) for the US (blue), average value 1/20/2021-11/4/2024 (light blue line), average value 11/6/2024- (orange
How Much Has the Price Level Risen for Consumers? Seven Measures
The conventionally used CPI-U is in the middle of the pack. Figure 1: CPI-urban (bold black), CPI-wage earners and clerical (purple), CPI for 2nd income
Did Wisconsin Manufacturing Thrive during Trump Trade War 1.0?
A retrospective: Figure 1: Wisconsin manufacturing employment, 000’s, s.a. (blue, left scale), Wisconsin manufactured exports in mn.2000$ (tan, right scale). Wisconsin nominal exports seasonally adjusted
Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”. The Russian economy, surprisingly resilient
Three Measures of Output | Econbrowser
GDP, GDO, GDP+: Figure 1: GDP (blue), GDO (tan), GDP+ (green), all in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. GDP+ scaled to equal GDP at 2019Q4. Source: BEA, Philadelphia
Average Real Wages (Still) Rising Faster than Inflation
A comparison between CPI, chained CPI, PCE price index, and HICP deflation: Figure 1: Average hourly earnings, CPI deflated (blue), chained CPI deflated (green), PCE
The Ruble under Pressure | Econbrowser
From Politico: The ruble tumbled on Wednesday to its lowest level in over two years, as a mix of low oil prices, new sanctions against
Business Cycle Indicators for Biden’s Economy in October
One of the last snapshots of the Biden economy show real consumption and personal income rising, with consumption rising 0.6% (vs. consensus of 0.3%), and
Trump 25% Tariffs: Wisconsinites “to get it good and hard”?
President-elect Trump has mentioned a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada. Time to think about how this would affect Wisconsin, a state that voted for
Six Measures of Core Instantaneous Inflation
With the core PCE deflator, we have these measures of what’s happening to core. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for core CPI (blue), chained core CPI (tan),