Conference Board: “A sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation weighed on confidence”
[ad_1] Per release today. In standardized terms, U.Michigan Sentiment and Conference Board Confidence are at the same level in September. Figure 1:
Confirmed: Uncertainty about Trade Policy Rises
[ad_1] From Baker, Bloom and Davis, as well as Caldara et al., in the wake of Section 232 (“National Security”) tariffs on
Trump Shock on GDP vs. “Core GDP” Trajectories
[ad_1] Relying on GDP might provide a misleading impression of regained momentum. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), 2023-24 stochastic trend (gray), GDPNow (9/26) (light blue
In Search of the Section 232 (National Security) Report on Bathroom Vanities
[ad_1] This is what I found on the Bureau of Industrial Security/Dept of Commerce website: In contrast, here’s the (long delayed)
Guest Contribution: “Does the Zillow rent measure help predict CPI rent inflation?”
[ad_1] Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee). The Divergence Between Rent Measures During
EPU Spikes: Government Shutdowns vs. 9/11, Lehman, “Bleach”, “Liberation Day”
[ad_1] I was wondering what happens to measured economic policy uncertainty during government shutdowns. In point of fact, EPU (as measured by
“What to know about Trump’s new pharmaceutical tariff plan”: That We Don’t Know Anything
[ad_1] Really, you read “The Hill” article, you literally don’t know anything. According to a former federal trade official, enforcing this sort of directive will
What Exactly Happened to the Dollar around “Liberation Day”: Illiquidity vs. No-Confidence
[ad_1] Some people argue the concurrent dollar decline and Treasury yield incrase was attributable to liquidity issues as repicing occurred against a backdrop of a
Trade Policy Uncertainty | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Nothing like a 100% tariff on (branded?) pharma to push up EPU-Trade Figure 1: EPU-trade category (left scale, blue), Trade Policy
Growth Reliance on the Tech Spending Boom
[ad_1] Two interesting pictures. First, the reliance of US GDP growth on Tech Spending. Source: DB, 24 Sep 2025. The second, from