Recession Now? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in
The Four Golfcart Men of the Apocalypse
[ad_1] In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check! War? Trump set the stage for
Prices for Ordinary Folk: February and the Future
[ad_1] From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices: Figure 1: CPI food at home component (bold black), ERS January forecast (blue square),
Wisconsin Employment and Forecasts | Econbrowser
[ad_1] DWD released February employment numbers yesterday; DoR’s February Economic Outlook forecast was also published. Figure 1: Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment (blue), November 2024 DoR
Expectations off a Cliff | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf. Figure 1: U.Michigan expectations index (blue), and NY “better off” aggregate (tan),
Guest Contribution: “Steeling losses: sectoral strains from the return of tariffs on steel and aluminium”
[ad_1] Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This
“The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
[ad_1] “…an increasing number of indicators say the recession has arrived in the broader economy.” Here are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle
Instantaneous Inflation: Headline, Core, Supercore for CPI, PPI, HICP
[ad_1] Data available as of today, first for headline: Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for CPI (blue), PCE deflator (tan), HICP (green), and PPI (red), per
Egg Prices: Forecasts OBE? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Overtaken By Events: Figure 1: Price of dozen large AA eggs, $ (blue, left scale), ERS forecast of January (blue square), ERS forecast of
EJ Antoni — Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 — Worries that Democrats Will Misunderstand GDPNow to Claim We’re Entering a Recession in 2025Q1
[ad_1] Antoni writes: Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president?