“the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”
[ad_1] As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade: Figure 1: SP500 (blue, left
When Will EJ Antoni End His Recession Call?
[ad_1] EJ Antoni concludes we’re in a recession, and elsewhere, have been since 2022. On the other hand, he argues (rightly) that we shouldn’t take
Vogue Magazine on Imminent Recession
[ad_1] From “Recession Blonde: How Economic Uncertainty Spurred the Latest Hair Color Trend”, March 17th: What is “recession blonde?” Recession blonde (or recession brunette) refers
FT-Booth Macro Survey on GDP Growth vs. Nowcasts, and Recession Start-Dates
[ad_1] The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post for comparison
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
[ad_1] The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary of
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
[ad_1] Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. Nowcasts (GDPNow as reported and accounting for gold imports; NY Fed) and
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
[ad_1] That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman (ASU).
Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
[ad_1] That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts
The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
[ad_1] Bofit: “Economic imbalances weighing on Russia’s output growth” From Bloomberg, “Ukraine Allies Agree to Step Up Economic Pressure on Russia”. UK Prime Minister Keir
Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
[ad_1] Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074. Figure 1: EPU (blue, left scale), and centered 7 day moving average (red, left scale), VIX (green, right