Near-Horizon Recession Probability: Estimate for April 2025
[ad_1] Using data through March. Figure 1: Recession probability 1 month ahead (blue). NBER defined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded gray. Assumes no recession in March.
Bill McBride/Calculated Risk on “Recession Watch”
[ad_1] Yesterday: I’m concerned about tariff policy impacting the economy. Usually fiscal, executive and trade policy decisions wouldn’t lead to an immediate recession, but these
Nowcasts, 4/5 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] NY Fed nowcast down. Figure 1: GDP (black), GDPNow of 4/1 (red triangle), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports (pink square), NY Fed (blue square),
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment in March
[ad_1] Mid-March to be specific. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December (thin
Has the Recession Already Started?
[ad_1] Even if the answer is yes, we won’t know for a long time. Here’s the odds on the recession start, with Q1 at 19%,
What a Difference a Day Makes: The Post-Obliteration Day Yield Curve
[ad_1] Inversion deepens (see sky blue line vs. green line): Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury. Over time: Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread
2 April 2025: An Event Study
[ad_1] Odds of a recession in 2025: Source: Kalshi, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. Polymarket confirms: Source: Polymarket, 2 April 2025, 8pm CT. The
Further Inversion of the Treasury Yield Curve
[ad_1] As of close today: Figure 1. Treasury yield curve, %. Source: US Treasury. Figure 2: 10yr-3mo Treasury term spread (blue, left scale),
Doug Irwin: “…bigger than Smoot-Hawley”
[ad_1] From Bloomberg: “This is going to be much bigger than Smoot-Hawley,” says Douglas Irwin, an economic historian at Dartmouth College, who points to both the
Negative GDP Growth in Q1?
[ad_1] GDPNow as of today: Here’s a picture of the level of GDP implied by these nowcasts and tracking forecasts. Figure 1: GDP (black),