Did Trump Blink? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] I see repeated references to this assertion. As Jason Furman points out, relative to “Liberation Day” announcement, he didn’t, insofar as the increase in
Ten Days that Shook the Financial World … But for What?
[ad_1] A recap: For context, the 4/5 observation on EPU is the second highest value since 1985 (the first highest is 1/9). [ad_2]
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident Index, VMT, Early Benchmark NFP
[ad_1] Coincident index growth slows from 4.1% m/m AR to 1.7% in February. Figure 1: Implied Nonfarm Payroll early benchmark (NFP) (bold blue), civilian employment
The Recession Start Predicted (Post-Pause)
[ad_1] While the odds on a recession in 2025 have dropped from 69% to 54% in the wake of Trump’s 90 day pause, the predicted
A Real-Time US Effective Tariff Rate Measure
[ad_1] From Paweł Skrzypczyński, “Average effective tariff rate in the U.S.”: [This page] presents historical data on U.S. average effective tariff rate together with The Budget
*Micro* becomes *Macro* and Macro-Financial Interactions
[ad_1] Gianluca Benigno points out that large and pervasive tariffs will have macro implications that spur deleveraging and a decline in R** in a pernicious
Stay Tuned for Dollar Share of World FX Reserves
[ad_1] Miran et al. want to end exorbitant privilege and the dollar’s role as a safe asset. Figure 1: US dollar reserves as share of
The Yield Curve: Steepening *and* Inverting
[ad_1] The time series, for 3m10s, 2s10s, as well as 1yr-FFR spread Miller (2019) identifies as max AUROC recession predictor at 1 month horizon. Figure
Policy Uncertainty and VIX Down (from Pretty High Levels…)
[ad_1] Data available as of 11am CT today: [ad_2] Source link
Random Observations | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Inversion continues, with 10yr-3mo at same level as on 12/`6. VIX at 45. Kalshi odds on a recession at 68%, highest since trading started