Is the Michigan Economic Sentiment Index at Recession Levels? Answer: Yes!
[ad_1] The current reading of 50.8 is below the 73.4 average reading over NBER peak-to-trough recessions dates (1990M01-2025M03): Figure 1: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Trump Blinks (For Now) | Econbrowser
[ad_1] From Bloomberg: President Donald Trump’s administration exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from its so-called reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology manufacturers
Economic Policy Uncertainty Hits Record High
[ad_1] Even if likely to be revised, it’s still remarkable. VIX down as high yield credit spread rises. And here’s a picture of credit
Is the Michigan Survey a Fluke? Are Republicans Still Optimistic? Do Republicans See Inflation Rising?
[ad_1] No. Yes/No. Yes. Compare the U.Michigan survey to SF News Sentiment index and Conference Board: Figure 1: U.Michigan Economic Sentiment (blue), Conference Board Confidence
Retail Egg Prices Up, Wholesale Down for Now – Forecasts Up
[ad_1] The egg crisis of 2025 is not over yet — consider what happens if tariffs are put on egg imports? Figure 1: Price of
Inflation Expectations Explode, Sentiment Collapses (U. Michigan)
[ad_1] Preliminary data today: Figure 1: One year inflation expectations, % (blue, left scale), and economic sentiment (tan, right scale). Trump administrations denoted by orange
Instantaneous CPI Inflation | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Rates are down, but not as far down as in mid-2024. Figure 1: Instantaneous inflation for headline CPI (blue), core CPI (brown), per Eeckhout
Expect Drops in Interest Rates
[ad_1] The yield curve looks like this as of today’s close: The EHTS implies that in 6 months, the 6 month Treasury yield will be
“Recession” Odds | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Two observations: (1) market odds of a downturn have rebounded today, and (2) the odds are very similar across two platforms (Kalshi, Polymarket), despite
Grocery Prices Continue to Rise, as Forecast Path Steepens
[ad_1] From CPI release today: Figure 1: CPI for food at home (black), USDA Economic Research Service forecast from January (blue square), from February (red