Wisconsin Policy Forum: “Turbulence for Wisconsin’s Export Economy”
[ad_1] An excellent overview is provided in this report, out today — although I’d say the title likely understates the situation confronting Wisconsin. Manufacturing and
Event Study: “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
[ad_1] I’m coming up on lecturing on Fed independence and time consistency etc. President Trump continues to provide (depressingly) many episodes to discuss. No dearth
How’s It Going? Trump on 8/9/2024: “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
[ad_1] Here’s a visual sit-rep on prices for Americans. Figure 1: CPI – all urban (blue), CPI food at home (green), AIER Everyday Price Index
2025Q1 Stall Speed? Tracking and Betting on GDP Growth, Retail Sales Composition
[ad_1] GDPNow at essentially zero growth. Industrial production, retail sales (control) surprise downside. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), WSJ January survey mean (blue), WSJ April
“What soaring uncertainty means for the U.S. economy”
[ad_1] From Cui, NBC: President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda has thrown the financial world for a loop for much of the past month. The on-again, off-again trade escalation with other
Dollar Dominance No More? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Steve Kamin in the FT, Goodman in the NYT, Krugman on substack, FT Editorial Board write on how Trump policy erraticism on erosion of
What a Difference Two Weeks Makes: NABE Economists on the “Liberation Day” Effect
[ad_1] From NABE two days ago, responses pre- and post-“Liberation Day”: From the NABE statement: The initial April 2025 NABE Outlook presents the consensus macroeconomic
WSJ Survey of Economists – April 2025
[ad_1] The GDP outlook is down markedly. I was insufficiently pessimistic (relative to WSJ survey respondents) regarding the GDP outlook. Figure 1: GDP (bold black),
Expectations Continue to Fall Off a Cliff
[ad_1] NY Fed future financial situation “better off” revised up, but continues decline. Figure 1: U.Michigan expectations index (blue), and NY “better off” aggregate (tan), both
Policy Uncertainty Remains High Despite Electronics Tariff Respite
[ad_1] Surprise! [ad_2] Source link