Business Cycle Indicator Sit-Rep | Econbrowser
[ad_1] A reader asks me about my 2025H1 recession call. I don’t have one, but here’s the latest depiction of indicators followed by the NBER
Recession Now? The Message from (Final rev’d) Michigan Expectations vs. PMI and CISS
[ad_1] Updating this post, probability of recession in April is 72%. Figure 1: Estimated recession probability from probit regression on (final) Michigan Sentiment (blue), and
Envisaging a 40% Decline in Long Beach Container Traffic
[ad_1] “LA County ports expect roughly 40% drop in traffic as Trump’s tariffs continue”: Figure 1: Long Beach inbound TEUs by month (blue), and 40%
Rising Expected Unit Cost Inflation Quantified
[ad_1] From Atlanta Fed: Figure 1: Business unit costs (blue), and consumer prices (tan), year-on-year expected change, %. Source: Atlanta Fed, NY Fed. Expected year-on-year
Symposium: “Europe amidst Uncertainty” | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Thursday, May 1, 2025 at the Pyle Center, UW Madison. 1:00: Welcome and introduction Mark Copelovitch, Director of European Studies and Jean Monnet
WEO, PIIE, WSJ Forecasts | Econbrowser
[ad_1] The IMF is pretty upbeat on the US economy…relatively speaking. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), IMF April WEO (blue square), WSJ April survey mean
Nowcast vs. Nowcast: Tariff-Jumping Imports as a Factor
[ad_1] Goldman Sachs puts Q1 growth at 0.1% q/q AR close to adjusted GDPNow, while NY Fed indicates 2.58%. The St. Louis Fed “news” index
Annotated Graph of SP500 and Dollar
[ad_1] Including “Liberation Day” and “termination”, down 15%, and 7.9% (log terms) relative to post-inauguration peaks (through 4/22 close). Figure 1: S&P500 (blue, left log
IMF, WSJ Forecasts for 2025 US Growth Revised Down
[ad_1] In today’s newly released IMF World Economic Outlook, 2025 Q4/Q4 growth revised down by 0.9 ppts from January. Compare against WSJ mean revised down
Why Aren’t You Calling? (Trump to Beijing)
[ad_1] From Bloomberg, “Trump Presses China to Make Tariff Offer to Calm Trade War”: “The ball is in China’s court. China needs to make a