Employment and Business Cycle Indicators
[ad_1] Continued growth apparent, although NFP employment pertains to first half of April. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied
Monthly Consumption, Personal Income, Mfg/Trade Indus Sales
[ad_1] And other NBER BCDC indicators. Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll incl benchmark revision employment from CES (bold blue), implied NFP from preliminary benchmark through December
Economy stumbles into 2025 | Econbrowser
[ad_1] The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP fell at a 0.3% annual rate in the fourth quarter. One
100 Day Marker: Economic Optics Not Great
[ad_1] GDPNow at -1.5% q/q AR. But final sales to domestic purchasers little changed. Figure 1: GDPNow of 4/29 (blue square), Goldman Sachs tracking of
A Timeline for Recession? | Econbrowser
[ad_1] Torsten Slok’s VTRR (Voluntary Trade Reset Recession): Source: Slok/Apollo. Torsten appends a 90% probability to recession. This is a conditional forecast (the tariffs stay
Safe No More? Two Pictures
[ad_1] Prepping slides for macro, found these interesting correlations. First, how the strength of the dollar correlates with the Treasury 10 year yield, daily 2015-23
More Nowcasts | Econbrowser
[ad_1] As of today: Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDPNow adjusted for gold imports, 4/24 (light blue square), GS, 4/24 (red triangle)), Wells Fargo, 4/25
Guest Contribution: “China’s Electronics Exports, Tariffs, and Relocating Production to the U.S.”
[ad_1] Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views
Republicans Seem Near-Impervious to Economic News
[ad_1] From the Michigan survey (final): Figure 1: Expectations of future economic conditions for Democrats/lean Democratic (blue, left scale), for Independents (gray, left scale), Republicans/lean