Twenty Two Days in October
[ad_1] That’s what Kalshi estimates the shutdown duration, as of today. What do we miss from BLS if that transpires? BEA? EIA, Census? We have
Delaying Employment Situation Release, CPI Release Next?
[ad_1] Is the Administration secretly happy that the employment situation release was delayed? Without inside information, one can’t answer that, but given
Business Cycle Implications from the ADP Release
[ad_1] My nowcast of BLS private nonfarm payroll employment was for a decreaes of 78K, but with a very wide prediction interval.
FT-Booth GDP Forecast for 2025: 1.6%
[ad_1] That’s q4/q4, as noted in the survey results for September. FIgure 1: GDP (bold black), FT-Booth September survey median (red triangle),
Nowcasting Private NFP for September
[ad_1] We won’t have the BLS series for private NFP as of Friday. Can we use the ADP-Stanford Digital Laboratory series (which
September Private Nonfarm Payroll Employment According to ADP
[ad_1] Since we won’t get the BLS September numbers on Friday, this is what we have. Figure 1: BLS private nonfarm payroll
Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Trade and the Future of the Global Economy [updated]
[ad_1] In a discussion with myself and Aaron Zitzelsberger (WEDC), at UW Madison, Thursday 2 October 2025, sponsored by the Alexander Hamilton Society
White House Pulls EJ Antoni Nomination to BLS Chief
[ad_1] From The Hill: Source: Times of Israel. The White House is withdrawing the nomination of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau
World Bank: “Accelerating Investment: Challenges and Policies”
[ad_1] A new volume from the World Bank, Office of Chief Economist: …developing economies face an investment shortfall of historic proportions. Even
Guest Contribution: “How do UK and Australia relations with China react to US-China shocks”
[ad_1] Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). A lot of my friends, economists or econometricians,